Thursday, May 15, 2014

The buzz in the markets

If markets are to be believed, Modi will win 1000 seats of 543, sweep away the fiscal deficit, turn current account deficit into savings account surplus, inject the Rupee with steroids and turn foreign investors Indian. He will bell the Chinese CAT, deny Obama a Visa and solve Kashmir once and for all by making Pakistan the 30th state of India. He will build autobahns from Arunachal to the Gulf of Cambay, turn Sri Lanka into a captive port and dig money out of the hole called Air India. He will discover the cure for AIDS, reverse global warming, prove Goldbach's conjecture, write the unified theory of everything, seed life on mars, find water on the moon and while at it export them some electricity. (overheard at the office today)

(Written on late May 15, before election results started coming in... stored here for the record)

Saturday, May 03, 2014

Ab Ki Baar...

I always had a political opinion but never one this strong. So this time, I articulated it on social media and got into fleshing it out ever more slightly, discussing with the already converted. Recording it here - in my own little diary, a time capsule. To come back to after 5 years for a reality check.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

When you vote tomorrow remember this: 

We live in a country, blighted with an overflowing industry of poverty-wallahs, selling the same snake oil for the last 60 years. They, who can squabble on who gets how much from the pie but not focus on it's size. They, who have wracked the free-market consensus with glib talk of inclusion.

Now, for the first time in Indian history, we have a leader who has the political will to say - 'Pay for power and you will get it 24x7'. The first time, a leader who can say don't accept alms from the government, earn your money and your self-confidence.

For the first time a leader who has the political mileage to say, 'Pehle shauchalaya, phir devalaya'. In a country that primarily shits in the open, that takes some courage. In the politics of perception, there's only one campaign that's risen above cynical segmentation.

Remember that the only alternative is Rahul. Yes, I would prefer a Nehru, a Shastri, a Vajpayee, heck even a Narsimha Rao but they are not on offer. The only alternative is a Rahul or a Mulayam, or a Mayawati led front.

Remember that what sustains riots is poverty. The same poverty which brings starvation, malnourishment and kills many more.

When you press that button tomorrow, remember 2G, coal, the tax terrorism, the TV blackout for passing the Telangana bill, the thousand prime ministers hooting their horns and the one ineffectual rubber stamp on them. Remember that secularism is but a fig-leaf covering all this.

Remember, ab ki baar...


---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Nehru ? Really ?

Socialism was all the rage in Nehru's days. He did make some major policy blunders but he also built strong institutions in a fledgling nation, you have to hand him that. It is interesting that we have three contenders - each claiming the legacy of one the original Indian triumvirate. The claimants to Nehru's legacy, seem beyond even an empty caricature. His pride in foreign relations led to permanent ulcers on the body of India, but none of the current leaders seem to be doing any better. So yes, Nehru, reluctantly, hoping for a new and improved post-Soviet, post 1962 version.

Modi does come with a magic wand. (Said with rolling eyes). And 'Devalaya before shauchalaya' is a matter-of-fact statement.

Modi is not a cure-all. In fact, his personality cult is worrying to most on the Indian right. No leader, not Hedgewar, not Golwalkar, not Vajpayee commanded such support beyond the party. But he is the best option amongst the current lot. Compared to current anarchy - this is definitely a move towards the solution. Again, sanitation is something no leader in India can speak about - it's too downmarket. I have seen 'educated' people sniggering when the topic is raised. To keep it before 'the temple', for starters even in speech, is plain amazing.

No Messiah definitely. But such is the poverty of ideas in our political class, that even words sound enticing. No one else, repeat, no one else, is even saying the right things, forget doing those. We will never get Arun Shourie for prime minister, so we make do with what we have. In my brief touchpoints with Gujarat, I have experienced efficiency - hoping for some of that to reflect nationally.

BJP is fascist. We can compromise on growth and money instead of rioting, fear mongering and murder.

If life would be that simple. We are at least as poor as sub-saharan Africa (by number of people). Each percentage point of growth you see lacking, cost lives, costs aspirations. The only way to save these lives is development. The only way to prevent riots is development. When were the last riots in Mumbai or Gujarat for that matter ? I honestly don't know if a section in Gujarat is cowering in fear, but a section in UP and another one in Assam surely is. That's where the snake oil vendors live. They make a mockery of every institution, including this time the IB and the passing of a bill in the LS. Then, they shout the wolf-word of secularism. If we cannot learn, then we deserve what we get !

Modi is a dictator

He may have dictatorial tendencies. Let's hope if he does occupy the top seat, the messiness in Delhi, in political India, will contain it. For now, this won't change my view. No other candidate is better, remember how the Telangana bill was passed or how the CBI is used. There are simply no other options !

The most interesting comment was this is more an anti-Congress wave than a pro-Modi one. In fact, many people (outside the influence of the primarily urban propaganda machinery) do not know his first name. 

Left me speechless !!